With the anticipation for the upcoming presidential election mounting, one question looms large: who will be Donald Trump’s vice-presidential running mate? While the former president has yet to unveil his pick, speculation abounds as rival parties have already made their selections.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. wasted no time in announcing Nicole Shanahan as his VP, echoing Joe Biden’s early commitment to Kamala Harris. With these decisions in mind, attention now turns to Trump’s camp. Who will fill the coveted VP slot alongside the former president?
Amidst the pool of potential candidates, three figures stand out:
- Marco Rubio
Rubio has been considered as Trump’s VP candidate for quite some time. Despite their intense back and forth in 2016, they have grown very close. Rubio functioned as a de facto Secretary of State for the Southern Hemisphere because of his Cuban background and his ability to speak Spanish. During Trump’s presidency, he sent Rubio to most Latin American countries to represent his interests. Rubio also had a significant influence on Trump’s Cuba policy, advocating for a return to a pre-Cuban Thaw relationship with stricter sanctions. Notably, Rubio has remained loyal to Trump, defending his false claims that Biden stole the election in 2020. Additionally, he is a person of color and seen as more moderate compared to other potential picks like Governor of South Dakota, Kristi Noem, or Vivek Ramaswamy.
However, the major issue preventing Rubio from being Trump’s VP pick is the fact that they would both be running from the same state of Florida. Since Rubio is a senator from Florida, he would either have to move, or due to a hiccup in US law, the electoral votes for him and Trump would not count. While Florida is barely a swing state anymore (some classify it as a red state due to Miami-Dade County becoming increasingly Republican each election since 2016), losing those electoral votes would be a blow to their campaign. In most elections, this wouldn’t be an issue, but given Florida’s status as a bellwether state for some, a very close result in Florida in favor of Biden would not bode well.
This issue arises from the 12th amendment, which mandates a separate ballot be cast for President and Vice President. This rule was instituted due to chaotic elections in 1800 and 1804, preventing an elector from voting for two people from their home state. One can only imagine the plight of the poor voter in Florida.
The closest instance resembling this issue was with Dick Cheney in 2000. Both Bush Jr. and Cheney were from Texas, raising concerns that their electoral votes wouldn’t count because of this rule. Cheney, unfortunately, put his house on the market in Texas and obtained a Wyoming driver’s license, changing his voting record to Wyoming in time for the election. Given the events of the 2000 election, one might wish he hadn’t taken this route. The world might have been a better place.
2. J.D Vance
J.D. Vance is a famous Republican senator from Ohio, best known for his book “Hillbilly Elegy.” It’s a memoir detailing his upbringing in the Appalachians and how his family values strongly influenced him. The book gained significant press during the 2016 election, and Vance was able to launch a successful Senate bid in 2021. Starting off as a critic of Trump, much like Rubio, he has since become a strong Trump loyalist. He also served in the Iraq War from 2003-2007. In terms of major policy, his response to the East Palestine train derailment was viewed as a major failure. He supports Trump’s claims of a stolen election, backed Trump’s border wall, anti-climate change stance, and many of Trump’s other major policies. While he is a Trump loyalist, he is also viewed as a moderate due to his pro-NATO stance but vocal criticism of US support for the War in Ukraine.
The major factor preventing Vance from being Trump’s VP pick is the issue of having two white men on the ticket. Given how Trump lost in diverse states like Georgia and Arizona, he may opt for someone of color like Tim Scott. South Carolina is also expected to be a major state in the upcoming election, making someone like Tim Scott an appealing choice. Trump also aims to regain the votes of independents and moderates, many of whom voted for Joe Biden in 2020. Having someone like Scott on the ticket could provide a significant boost to the Trump campaign. However, insiders suggest that Vance remains Trump’s second or third pick, indicating that he is still in contention.
3. Tim Scott
Tim Scott is being viewed as the favorite for Trump’s VP pick at the moment, as he’s mentioned the most along with Rubio, Vance, and others. Scott is a senator from South Carolina, a state Trump won by 11.8% in 2020, but down three percent from 2016. Given shifting demographics, there is a small but significant chance that South Carolina could flip; however, the last time this occurred was in 1976 under Jimmy Carter. There is a chance Biden and co. could win the state. Therefore, Trump wants to accomplish two things: assure minority, moderate, and independent votes and ensure South Carolina doesn’t flip.
Scott supports Trump’s border policies, stricter immigration, opposes same-sex marriage, urged Trump to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement, takes a tougher stance on China, voted against creating a 9/11-style commission for January 6th, and is generally pro-Trump on a lot of policies. The only split between them is the issue of racism, with Scott declaring it “alive and well.” Scott was highly critical of Trump’s response to the Charlottesville “Unite the Right” rally and his “both sides” comments. But like former critics, he’s fallen in line and is supportive of Trump. Because of these factors, I highly believe that Scott or Ted Cruz will be Trump’s VP pick. Scott would simply be the safest choice and could bring back voters Trump lost and would allow Trump to appear diverse.
Here are some bonus picks:
- Doug Burgum
- Rep. Elise Stefanik
- Ron DeSantis
- Tom Cotton
Please let me know who you think Trump’s VP pick will be.
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